For Robin Van Persie, Old Trafford was once an unforgiving place. As an Arsenal player the Dutchman never sampled victory at Manchester United’s Theatre of Dreams. United’s unbeaten home run against Arsene Wenger’s side dates to 2006; in fact, the Gunners sustained their biggest Premier League defeat the last time they visited.
Van Persie scored that day (although he also missed a penalty), turning in a performance that marked him as the Gunners’ only outstanding figure. It was a trend that carried throughout Arsenal’s season, with Van Persie scoring 30 times in the league, 40 percent of his team’s total for the season.
So considering the apparent gulf that already existed between United and Arsenal last season, and the off-season move of Van Persie to the northern side of the rivalry, is it safe to assume that gap has widened as the teams prepare to meet on Saturday (8:30 a.m. Eastern, ESPN2)? Is United better with Van Persie? Is Arsenal worse without him?
League tables never lie, it is said, so one drawing a comparison using the Premier League standings would conclude that Arsenal is actually better without Van Persie, having taken 15 points from their opening nine Premier League games, compared to only 13 from the same number of fixtures last season.
Of course, this comparison is far too simplistic, but it does dispel the common consensus that Wenger’s decision to let the Dutch striker leave the Emirates has critically weakened his team. Van Persie has continued his impressive goalscoring form with United, scoring seven times in seven Premier League starts. But has United become as reliant on him as Arsenal was often perceived to be?
Van Persie was responsible for a big chunk of Arsenal’s total attempts on goal last season, a little more than 26 percent. However, despite United’s supposed superior attacking line, Van Persie has taken a larger share of his new team’s overall shots in his first seven league starts, just over 32 percent. This would fit assumptions if Van Persie’s lower share was the result of a larger total attempts count by United. Yet Arsenal averaged almost 17 shots on goal per game last season, compared with only 15 by the Red Devils this year. But if Arsenal was indeed a one-man team last season, United is just as reliant on Van Persie already.
Wenger did not directly replace Van Persie at Arsenal. Instead he strengthened his squad across the board, giving the Gunners more attacking options by bringing in dynamic forwards like Santi Cazorla and Lukas Podolski, as well as the Frenchman Olivier Giroud. Wingers Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Theo Walcott have also been given more attacking responsibility.
That burden is now shared across Arsenal’s new look inter-changeable front line, with no one player enjoying more than 18 percent of the Gunners’ total attempts on goal. Some actually argue that Wenger’s decision to let Van Persie leave the Emirates has actually made his team more balanced. He also might have proved that the Gunners are not doomed without the Dutchman after all.
In Arsenal’s opening nine games last season they averaged 15 attempts on goal per game, hitting the target 34 percent of the time, and scoring 15 times. This year the Gunners have averaged 18 attempts on goal, with an on target rate of 33 percent, and have found the net 14 times.
So if Van Persie’s move north hasn’t weakened Arsenal, has it at least made United better?
By contrasting the opening seven games of United’s 2011-12 season, without Van Persie, and 2012-13 season, with him, it’s possible to get a glimpse of his impact. United averaged 18 attempts on goal (7.2 on target) and 3.4 goals in their opening seven league fixtures last season (numbers padded, for sure, by an 8-2 win over Van Persie’s Arsenal). This season they have averaged only 16 attempts on goal (6 on target) and 2.8 goals per game. The difference is too slight to conclude the signing of Van Persie has unsettled or even weakened United’s strike force, but neither can it be said that an improvement is clear.
Wenger has urged the Arsenal supporters making the journey north for Saturday’s game to show respect to Van Persie, their former captain, reminding them of what he did for the club during his eight years there. Those Arsenal players who were made to suffer sheer ignominy at Old Trafford last season, however, will have incentive in trying to prove to their former leader that they’re better off without him.
